Swing in Votes Polled by the BJP in Indian Parliamentary Elections (1984-1996)

 

Kiran Bala

 

Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, MKJK Girls College, Rohtak-124001

 

The BJP, which had won only 2 seats in the eighth Lok Sabha elections of 1984 with 7.74 percent vote, increased its seats tally to 85 (out of the total 225 seats contested) in the 1989 Lok Sabha elections with 11.36 percent vote (3.62 percent positive swing). In terms of both seats won and votes polled, the party ranked third after the Congress and the Janata Dal which had won 197 and 143 seats and polled 39.53 and 17.79 percent vote respectively.

 

In this election, the electoral experience was indeed a memorable and morale-booster for the party. The electoral outcomes were unprecedented in its history since the days of the BJS. Previously, “it had never exceeded 10 percent of the vote or 35 seats nationally, except for 1977, when as a component of the Janata Party it won 99 of 295 seats won by the Janata Party” ¹. “Along with its aggressive Hindu nationalist posture, the BJP was also expanding its support base by working with the people, particularly the tribals in south Bihar and Gujarat and the lower backward class communities in U P and M P” ².

 

The results of the tenth Lok Sabha elections changed the nature of the party system in India so drastically that it has ended the domination of one party system, as well as the unchallenged sway of the Nehruvian secular political ideology. To many political commentators, the improvements made by the BJP in its percent vote tally and seats won in 1991 not only virtually eliminated the old guard of the Hindi Speaking States, i. e. the Congress, but also posed a challenge to the secular policies of the Indian state and that for the first time since independence.  It became the second largest party in the lower house of Parliament as well as the second largest vote receiver after the INC. The party received 20.11 percent vote of the electorate with a positive swing of 8.75 percent). The BJP’s success in the 1991 elections proved “that popular support for a party espousing Hindu nationalism exists among the Indian electorate, although support came primarily from the Hindi-Speaking North”³. During its election campaigns, in response to the challenges posed by the Congress (I) and the Mandal Commission Report, the BJP “tried to bring various castes under its political domain. It had used the Ram Janambhoomi controversy as a powerful religious symbol to create a sense of unity among the divergent Hindu castes and it had succeeded in this venture to some extent”⁴.

 

In 1996 election, the BJP had polled 20.29 percent vote. It was marginally (0.18 percent swing) higher than the 1991 elections. Among all the national political parties, the BJP ranked second in terms of percent votes polled and first in terms of seats won.  It is interested to note that the BJP was the only national political party whose vote share had increased in this election. The Indian National Congress which was shifted rank number two in terms of seats won had experienced negative swing of 7.46 percent in the votes polled.

 

METHODOLOGY:

Swing in vote percent has been calculated at the constituency-level as well as state level for the parliamentary elections, viz. 1984, 1989, 1991 and 1996. The electoral analysis covering 543 parliamentary constituencies would give ample information about the spatiality of the party vote.

 

Swing in vote percent = votes received by the party in the present election – votes received by the party in the preceding election. It can be positive/negative.

 

Swing has been carried out only for those constituencies which have been contested by the party in both elections. Category-wise tables on swing in vote percent at the state level also have been made and analyzed. Among the cartographic techniques, choropleth method has been used to show the patterns of swing. Bar diagrams and line graphs have also been used to show the trends of swing in the vote percentage.

 

The constituency-wise electoral data for the party has been taken from various electoral reports as published by the Election Commission of India, New Delhi.

 

Swing in the Vote Percent (1984-1989):

The pattern of swing in the BJP percent vote (1984 to 1989) at state level indicates that the party not only kept alive the tradition of building a strong mass base in some North Indian states but also shown signs of its presence in South Indian states. The states where the party had recorded huge positive swing included Himachal Pradesh (22.03%), Maharashtra (13.63%), Gujarat (11.86%), Madhya Pradesh (9.71%) and the national capital territory of Delhi (7.35%). The party also recorded positive swing in Kerala (2.75%) and West Bengal (1.30%). In Goa (-2.34%), Karnataka (-2.08%), Haryana (-0.76%) and Tripura (-0.17%), the party registered negative swing in percent vote.

 

The constituency level data on swing indicates that in total there were 78 constituencies which had registered positive swing of less than 20 percent. These included as many as 21 constituencies from Madhya Pradesh, 10 and more constituencies from the states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra.

 

Further analysis of the patterns of these constituencies has revealed that majority of these constituencies were from central-southern Madhya Pradesh, central Uttar Pradesh, southern Bihar (10), northern West Bengal, central Gujarat and north eastern Maharashtra. The spatial distribution of 39 seats having swing in vote percent between 20 to 40 percent, majority were from northern and eastern Madhya Pradesh, east-central Rajasthan, northern U.P., southern Bihar,  central and eastern Maharashtra. The only 3 constituencies where the swing in the vote percent was above 40 percent one each was from Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra.

 

The map showing the constituency-wise spatial pattern of swing in the vote percent of the party clearly indicates that in total there were 29 constituencies where the swing was negative for the party. In the states of Andhra Pradesh, Goa, Karnataka, Kerala, Manipur and Tripura, the swing in the vote percent was negative and up to 20 percent. There were 2 constituencies where the swing was between – 20 to – 40 percent. One each was from Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

 

The overall conclusion from the map showing the pattern of swing in the vote percentage of the BJP in 1989 is that the areas of huge positive swing for the party were basically to the north of Vindhyas (Figure 1).

 

Swing in the Percent Votes Polled in Favour of BJP (1989-91)

The pattern of swing in the BJP percent vote (1989-1991) at state-level indicates that by keeping alive its tradition of building a mass base in north Indian states the party also made inroads in the southern states. The states and union territories, where the party recorded huge positive swing, included Karnataka (26.68%), Uttar Pradesh (25.22%), Gujarat (19.87%), Chandigarh (16.5%), Goa (14.91%), Delhi (14.01%) and Rajasthan (11.28%). The party also recorded positive swing in West Bengal (9.96%), Orissa (8.2%), Andhra Pradesh (7.63%) and Manipur (5.8%). In the states of Himachal Pradesh (2.51%) and Maharashtra (3.5%) the party registered negative swing (Table 1). 

 

In four states (Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh) polling was held in two phases (before and after the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi) in this election. While computing the data on swing in vote percent, results showed that before and after the assassination the average of swing in vote percent was positive in Uttar Pradesh (14.4% and 10.54% respectively). In Rajasthan before the assassination the average of swing was positive (3.67%), while after the assassination it was negative (-4.22%). On the other hand, in Bihar and Andhra Pradesh in both the phases (before and after the assassination) the average of swing in vote percent was negative (-3.63% & -9% and -42.91% & -30% respectively).   

 

The Constituency-wise analysis of the swing in the percent votes polled by the party indicates that out of the total 3 constituencies where the swing in the percent votes polled by the party was above -40 percent (negative), 2 were from Bihar and 1 was from Andhra Pradesh. Out of the 7 constituencies where the party’s swing in the percent votes was between -20 to -40 percent, 2 were each from Haryana and Rajasthan and 1 was each from Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and U.P.  Of the 87 Constituencies where the swing in the poll percent was below-20 percent, majority were from Madhya Pradesh (26), central Bihar, Maharashtra (12), west-central Gujarat, east-central Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.

 

Similarly, of the total 86 Constituencies, where the swing in the party’s poll percent was 0 to 20 percent (positive), majority were from north-eastern and southern  West Bengal (19), Kerala (except northern part), north-central U.P., southern Bihar, central Maharashtra, a small part of western Madhya Pradesh and western Orissa. Out of the 20 constituencies where the swing in the percent votes polled by the party was between 20 to 40 percent, majority were from north-central U.P. and southern Karnataka. There was only one constituency, where the swing in the poll percent of the party was above 40 per cent positively, was from Rajasthan. The overall conclusion from the pattern of the swing in percent vote for the party in 1991 election is that the party recorded negative swing in the central and western parts of the country.

 

Swing in the Percent Votes Polled in Favor of the BJP (1991-1996)

The pattern of swing in the BJP percent vote (1991-1996) at state level indicates that the party had increased its support in the union territories in this election. The states and union territories, where the party recorded huge positive swing included Andaman & Nicobar Islands (19.4%), Arunachal Pradesh (11.3%), Chandigarh (10.25%), Haryana (9.57%), Delhi (9.39%) and Daman & Diu (8.57%). The party also recorded positive swing in the states and union territories of Dadra & Nagar Haveli (7.03%), Assam (6.32%), Bihar (4.93%), Orissa (3.92%), Tripura (3.51%), Pondicherry (2.45%), Meghalaya (2.24%), Maharashtra (1.61%), Rajasthan (1.48%), Tamil Nadu (1.28%), Kerala (1.0%) and Uttar Pradesh (0.62%). The party recorded negative swing also in the states of West Bengal (4.78%), Karnataka (4.43%), Andhra Pradesh (3.98%), Himachal Pradesh (3.17%), Manipur (2.85%), Goa (1.86%), Gujarat (1.85%) and Madhya Pradesh (0.56%) (Table 1).

 

Table 1: Swing in Votes Polled by the BJP in Indian Parliamentary Elections (1984-1996)

 

The constituency-wise analysis of the data of the swing in the percent votes polled in favour of the party clearly indicates that out of the total 2 constituencies, where the swing in the percent votes polled in favour of the party was -20 to -40 percent (negatively), 1 was each from Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. Out of the 207 constituencies, where the swing in the percent votes polled for the party was below -20 percent (negatively), majority were from West Bengal (40), northern and western Uttar Pradesh (37),  Andhra Pradesh (33), north-western and eastern Madhya Pradesh (19), southern & central Karnataka (17), central Gujarat (12), Tamil Nadu (12), Rajasthan(11), southern Bihar (5) and Maharashtra (Figure 1).

 

Similarly, out of the total 198 constituencies, where the swing in the percent votes polled was 0 to 20 percent (+), majority from northern and south-central Uttar Pradesh (44) alone, central Madhya Pradesh (20), central northern Bihar (17), north-central and eastern Maharashtra (17), Orissa (16), Kerala (15), Rajasthan (13) and central & southern Gujarat (12). Of the total 15 constituencies, where the swing in the percent vote  for the party was between 20 to 40 percent, majority were from central Bihar (7) and southern Haryana (4). The only one constituency where the swing in the percent votes for the party was above 40 percent was from Bihar (Figure 2).

 

The overall conclusion from the map showing the pattern of the BJPs swing in the vote percentage in 1996 is that the party recorded negative (-) swing in the central and southern parts of the country (Figure 2). However, in the southern states of Kerala and Karnataka (northern part), the party’s swing was positive (+). In addition, the swing in the percentage of vote for the party was positive (+) in majority of the constituencies of the North-Eastern states.

 

Trends and Patterns in Swing

In total there were 156 constituencies where the swing for the party was positive consistently. The pattern of these constituencies indicates that these constituencies were from Uttar Pradesh (42), Orissa (17), Bihar (13), Karnataka (14), Kerala (11), Madhya Pradesh (5), Gujarat (7), Rajasthan (9), and Maharashtra (8), (Fig. 3). The regional character of consistency in swing in votes polled by the party clearly shows that the Hindi-Speaking States (with 48.1 percent share) has emerged as the area of strength of the party. Besides this, the party registered its presence in the Southern states and Western States as these regions shared 22.43 percent and 10.25 percent respectively shown in the figure 3.

 

CONCLUSION:

On the basis of various criteria used for analyzing the electoral performance of the BJP in terms of swing in votes polled, in this study the following points can be summed up: 

1        Since 1984 when the party had polled 7.74 percent vote, the party had attained the upward trend.

2        However, over a time, the numbers of constituencies with higher percent swing (30+) for the party has decreased. The number of such constituencies was 42 in 1984, 21 in 1989 and 16 in 1996.

3        The Hindi-Speaking region is the main supporting area for the party. The share of this region, however, has increased continuously since 1984. Outside the Hindi-Speaking states, the vote share of the party had improved especially in the states of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka.

4        The analysis of 156 constituencies where the party had recorded positive swing consistently in these elections reveals that majority of such constituencies were from Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, Bihar, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Assam.

 

REFERENCES:

1.       Sridharan, E., (2005) “Coalition Strategies and the BJP’s Expansion, 1989-2004”, Commonwealth & Comparative Politics, 43:2, pp. 199.

2.       Singh, V.B., (2004) “Rise of the BJP and Decline of the Congress: An Appraisal”, in Vora, Rajender and Palshikhar, Suhas, (eds), Indian Democracy Meaning and Practices, Sage Publications, New Delhi, p. 304.

3.       Seshia, Shaila, (1998)  “Divide and Rule in Indian Party Politics: The Rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party”, Asian Survey, Vol. XXXVIII, No. 11, p. 1045.

4.       Engineer, Asghar Ali, (1991) “Lok Sabha Elections and Communalisation of politics”, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. XXIV, No. 33, pp. 1649.